The National Association of Realtors (NAR) keeps
historical data on many aspects of homeownership. One of the data
points that has changed dramatically is the median tenure of a family in
a home, meaning how long a family stays in a home prior to moving. As
the graph below shows, for over twenty years (1985-2008), the median
tenure averaged exactly six years. However, since 2008, that average is almost nine years – an increase of almost 50%.
Why the dramatic increase?
The reasons for this change are plentiful!
The
fall in home prices during the housing crisis left many homeowners in a
negative equity situation (where their home was worth less than the
mortgage on the property). Also, the uncertainty of the economy made
some homeowners much more fiscally conservative about making a move.
With home prices rising dramatically
over the last several years, 93.9% of homes with a mortgage are now in a
positive equity situation with 78.8% of them having at least 20%
equity, according to CoreLogic.
With
the economy coming back and wages starting to increase, many homeowners
are in a much better financial situation than they were just a few
short years ago.
One other reason for the increase was brought to light by NAR in their 2017 Home Buyer and Seller Generational Trends Report. According to the report,
“Sellers 36 years and younger stayed in their home for six years…”
These homeowners who are either looking for
more space to accommodate their growing families or for better school
districts are more likely to move more often (compared to 10 years for typical sellers in 2016).
The homeownership rate among young families, however, has still not
caught up to previous generations, resulting in the jump we have seen in
median tenure!
What does this mean for housing?
Many
believe that a large portion of homeowners are not in a house that is
best for their current family circumstance; They could be baby boomers
living in an empty, four-bedroom colonial, or a millennial couple living
in a one-bedroom condo planning to start a family.
These
homeowners are ready to make a move, and since a lack of housing
inventory is still a major challenge in the current housing market, this
could be great news.


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